Costa Rica’s 2026–27 high season: where this winter’s guests are coming from, and where they are not

More visitors, but all the growth came early in the year

According to the Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT), 2,310,320 international visitors arrived between January and September 2026, 4.8 percent more than in the same months of 2025. That sounds good, but almost all of the growth came in the first quarter: January to March was a record, up 11.3 percent. From April to September arrivals were flat (+0.1 percent), and August and September both fell.

The whole of 2025 closed at 2,943,991 arrivals, still below 2019. The Tourism Studies Center (CET) puts its central scenario for 2026 at about 3.05 million, and is clear that it is an illustrative scenario, not a forecast. There is no official ICT forecast for the coming season.

Liberia is growing, San José is slowing

The biggest change this year is in the airports. From January to September, Daniel Oduber airport in Liberia received 769,716 arrivals, up 11.9 percent. Juan Santamaría grew only 2.1 percent, and in September it fell 5.4 percent while Liberia rose 11.8 percent.

Scheduled seats tell the same story. According to the CET, seat capacity from January to July rose only 0.7 percent: 2.4 percent fewer seats into San José and 11.6 percent more into Liberia. Since April, monthly capacity has been below the year before. And in May, Spirit stopped flying altogether, taking its low-cost flights from Fort Lauderdale and Orlando to San José with it.

If your hotel is in Guanacaste, the current is with you. If you depend on San José, as most of the Central Valley, the Caribbean and the South Pacific do, this year it pays to work harder on the markets that still fly into Juan Santamaría, such as Europe.

Canada and Europe are up, the United States has cooled

The United States is still by far the largest market, but it has cooled: 13.7 percent fewer Americans arrived in August and 3.3 percent fewer in September. The growth came from Canada and Europe.

Canadian guests are worth the effort. According to ICT figures reported by The Tico Times, they stay an average of 14.9 nights and spend about $3,000 per person per trip. Most of them land in Liberia. Europeans, on the other hand, arrive almost entirely through San José, and this winter they have more flights to choose from.

This winter’s new flights

Almost all the new flights from the United States and Canada go to Liberia. The exceptions are Porter from Toronto and Air Transat from Quebec City, which land in San José, along with the European routes. These are the routes the airlines have announced, as listed by The Tico Times:

Every new flight is a specific arrival day. If a weekly flight lands on Saturdays, Saturday and Sunday are good days to keep open for arrivals, and your minimum stay can follow the same rhythm.

Shorter stays and dearer flights

Visitors who arrived by air stayed an average of 10.3 nights in 2025, down from 12.2 in 2024 and 12.9 in 2023: the shortest stay in 20 years, according to the ICT. Spending per trip, on the other hand, is still high, at $1,848 on average.

Flights are not helping. Airlines point to the cost of fuel; Southwest cancelled its planned Las Vegas–San José route before it ever flew, for that reason. A more expensive trip is usually a shorter one, decided later. Check whether your minimum stays still fit a 10-night trip split between two or three places.

The dollar at ₡450

The colón is at its strongest since the Central Bank’s series began. The dollar averaged ₡648.76 in 2022 and ₡450.93 from January to August 2026. If you charge in dollars and pay wages, electricity and suppliers in colones, each dollar now buys about 30 percent fewer colones than four years ago.

At the same time, the minimum wage goes up 1.70 percent on January 1, 2027. The high season has to carry more of the year than it used to.

What the hotel surveys say

The closest thing to a national thermometer is the surveys of the Costa Rican Hotel Chamber (CCH). For Christmas and New Year 2025–26, the CCH projected 77 percent occupancy, its lowest projection since 2022. At the time of the survey, hotels had 69 percent on the books: they were counting on eight points of late bookings. Guanacaste expected 88 percent, the Caribbean 71 and the South Pacific 70.

Easter 2026 looked much the same: 75 percent projected with 68 percent on the books, and about a quarter of hotels running promotions, including discounts of 10 to 25 percent. Late booking is now normal. What matters is being open, and at the right price, when it comes.

What to do before December

• Look at where your guests come from. If your bookings from the United States are down and those from Canada are up, your messages, your photos and your offers should follow the guests who are actually coming.
• Check your minimum stays. With 10-night trips split across several places, a five-night minimum in January can cost you bookings. Try shorter minimums outside the peak dates.
• Leave room for late bookings. If hotels fill the last points at the last minute, closing sales too early or raising prices blindly is expensive.
• Price the dollar. Check your dollar rates against your 2027 costs in colones, not your 2022 ones.
• Plan for an early peak. In 2027 Easter week, Semana Santa, falls on March 21–28, so April will feel quieter than it did in 2026.

How Staywarden helps

In Staywarden, Analytics shows your bookings by country, how far ahead each market books by season and by channel, and the pickup for the next 30 days. You can see in your own numbers whether what is happening to the country is happening to you.

Your seasons, prices and minimum stays are set once, on a year wheel, and go out to your booking page and every channel at the same time. If a new flight brings you Saturday arrivals, you change the rule in one place. The plans are on the pricing page.

Sources

• ICT, international arrivals statistics (data to September 2026)
• CET, Technical Note 17: arrivals January–September 2026 (October 16, 2026)
• La Nación: air capacity grows in Liberia and falls in San José (October 27, 2026)
• The Tico Times: new direct flights to Costa Rica (August 8, 2026)
• The Tico Times: Spirit Airlines shutdown (May 3, 2026)
• The Tico Times: Canadian visitors (October 5, 2026)
• The Tico Times: length of stay and the exchange rate (September 28, 2026)
• El Observador: CCH survey, Christmas and New Year 2025–26 (December 17, 2025)
• La República: CCH survey, Easter 2026 (March 23, 2026)
• Ministry of Labor (MTSS): minimum wages 2027 (October 28, 2026)